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MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: 21-11-2016

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: 21-11-2016
November 21
14:55 2016

Both Nifty and Sensex ended in red due to continuous sell-off of retail investors and cautious stance taken by the institutional investors.  Concerns of possible rate hike in US and uncertainties over the action plan than would be taken by the newly elected US President of US are the key reasons for the market slump.   As of now many of the major technical indicators are still in sell mode, so we can expect more selling in the days to come.  The only good news is that markets are oversold especially the daily charts, we can expect a bounce back in the near term.  It does not mean that the worst is over.  Nifty has support at 8000 level, if that level has taken off then we can expect a level of 7906 in the short term.  Many of the leading technical indicators in the monthly charts are yet to give a sell signal can give selling indications if there is no sharp recovery.  The immediate resistances for the Nifty are at 8239 and 8463.  If Nifty can manage to cross these levels with higher volumes then we can expect further uptrend resumption.  It is prudent to reduce both and long positions till we get a clear picture of the market.  Writing options are also riskier at this time.

Banking Nifty is the strongest sector which can lend support to the market in the near term.  Nifty Bank has support at 18407 and it has resistances at 19042 and 19153.   Price corrections can be utilized to buy small quantities of banking stocks.

Many macro data’s are expected to come out next week from US, among them Initial Jobless Claims, US Market Manufacturing PMI, New Home Sales No and FOMC Minutes are the important ones.  Investors are very cautious on the moves of US Fed, which is likely to increase interest rates on expectation of faster recovery of their economy.

From the EURO zone macro data’s like Balance of Trade, Unemployment rate and Consumer Confidence are expected next week.  On Wednesday India’s RBI is scheduled to meet on interest rate decision.  Macro data’s like GDP growth rate, Infrastructure output, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI and Nikkei Service PMI are also expected next week.  Investors are expecting a possible rate reduction of quarter percent in the immediate future.

On November 15th all India General CPI dropped to 4.2% in October comparing with 4.39% in September.  Core Inflation is in the comfort zone of RBI at 4.8% which is slightly higher than the figure on September at 4.77% in 2016.

Most of the companies came out with their quarterly earnings numbers, but there are some more companies left which are expected in the next week.  All Cargo, IRB,JBFIND, LT,PC Jewllers, Siemens, Jindal Poly, Suven, Bata India, BEML, Spice Jet, UFLEX, TIMKEN, Tata Power, Crom Greaves, and TVS Srichak are expected to come out with their numbers.

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ALEX MATHEWS

ALEX MATHEWS

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